|
Before
you go any further you should have read the article on the methodology of
this anaylsis.
So let’s take a look at
the data for the last three qualification periods and see what we may
determine from the data. Firstly here is a chart of the HQCs
for each event by year. The table below that shows the HQCs
by Age Group and the detailed breakdowns by AG by year can be found at the
foot of the page. Let’s discuss the races individually. Please also note that
Wisconsin, Florida
and Western Australia take place in the
previous calendar year to Hawaii.
Thus when I discuss IMoo for the 2007 season the
race actually took place in 2006.
|
Average HQC
|
Season
|
|
Event
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
Average
|
|
Arizona
|
18.7%
|
22.6%
|
19.6%
|
20.3%
|
|
Lake Placid
|
20.4%
|
17.3%
|
19.3%
|
19.0%
|
|
Coeur D'alene
|
17.6%
|
21.2%
|
18.0%
|
18.9%
|
|
Louisville
|
|
|
18.9%
|
18.9%
|
|
New Zealand
|
18.2%
|
|
18.5%
|
18.3%
|
|
Malaysia
|
|
20.8%
|
15.4%
|
18.1%
|
|
Canada
|
22.4%
|
15.5%
|
16.2%
|
18.0%
|
|
France
|
21.2%
|
16.8%
|
15.4%
|
17.8%
|
|
South Africa
|
19.7%
|
14.9%
|
18.0%
|
17.5%
|
|
Korea
|
15.9%
|
|
18.0%
|
16.9%
|
|
Wisconsin
|
16.4%
|
22.0%
|
12.1%
|
16.8%
|
|
Germany
|
14.5%
|
18.9%
|
14.9%
|
16.1%
|
|
Brazil
|
14.6%
|
17.9%
|
15.2%
|
15.9%
|
|
Lanzarote
|
17.8%
|
15.6%
|
14.2%
|
15.9%
|
|
Japan
|
14.9%
|
16.1%
|
15.9%
|
15.7%
|
|
Australia
|
14.2%
|
15.3%
|
14.3%
|
14.6%
|
|
Switzerland
|
15.0%
|
15.1%
|
13.5%
|
14.5%
|
|
United Kingdom
|
16.2%
|
12.7%
|
14.4%
|
14.5%
|
|
Florida
|
14.8%
|
12.5%
|
13.7%
|
13.7%
|
|
Austria
|
13.3%
|
15.0%
|
12.6%
|
13.6%
|
|
Western Australia
|
11.4%
|
15.5%
|
11.3%
|
12.7%
|
|
Average
|
16.7%
|
17.0%
|
15.7%
|
16.4%
|
Arizona tops the list overall
rating 5th place in 2005 and 1st in both 2006 and 2007.
Over the last three seasons it rates as the best event for qualification in
the M18 and M25 age groups with 3rd in M30, 4th in M35,
6th in M40 and 4th in M45. This is what I love. Not
only does it come out first but the other parameters that I like to see are
all there. Notably the consistency over time and across all the age groups
and the above average number of slots. Strangely enough, although perhaps
linked to this, is the fact that Arizona is
one of the few IMs in North
America that does not sell out in minutes. For the last two
years the registration has not been a problem. So how about the course
profile. Well its calendar placement is not ideal for many athletes. This
early season event means that you really need to be out there in the winter
months building your base. The temperatures could potentially require a
non-wetsuit swim and with WTC looking at the speedskin
issue quite closely this could mean that the non-swimmers amongst us (and
that includes me) will have to spend a little more time in the pool instead
of relying on artificial buoyancy. Wetsuits have been allowed in the first
three editions of the event but it is probably not a perennial guarantee. In
2007 the bike course was typified by high winds which combined with the
desert sand gave the participants something to think about. Heat is of course
an issue on the run but then again that is a likely scenario in the majority
of IM races. IM Marathon times are of course way off the times posted by our
single sport cousins. Much more so than the bike and swim times. We often
remind them of the 2.4 mile swim and the 112 mile bike warm up as an excuse,
but we should also include the fact that most marathon races start at an
early hour and are over before the temperature can seriously trouble the
serious competitors. It is a fact of IM racing that if you are looking to do
Kona Qualifying times then in the pleasant destinations that WTC have
selected you are probably going to be starting your marathon at around 1:30
in the afternoon in temperatures upwards of 30 degrees centigrade. If your
goal is not only to get to Kona, but to put in a good performance once you
are there, then events in these kinds of conditions are the ones you should
be aiming for anyway.
So Arizona tops the list as the best bet for
Kona qualification and you can expect to find me at the starting line there
in April 2008.
Lake Placid and Coeur D’alene. It is
appropriate that these two events should place next to each other on the list
in 2nd and 3rd places respectively. The data show
consistency across the age groups but fluctuate by year. Most triathletes
will figure out immediately why this is. The decision of the WTC to create a
North American Championship race and alternate this race between these two
locations over the last few seasons certainly has an impact over the
qualifying requirements. Firstly, if you have read studiously the theory
behind my methodology (and by the way if you haven’t then much of this isn’t going to make much sense to you) then you will
understand that I have to fudge the Elite Reference Time for the year in
which the Male Pros do not attend each of the races. For the year that they
do attend the races one could argue that the ERT will be better than it would
have been had the course not been designated as the NA championship race as
the pro field is likely to be artificially stronger. I have not made any
adjustment for this factor as it is probably supposition. What is clear from
the data is that the Age Group field does vary according to this effect. Thus
another notable conclusion to draw, and therefore to take into account for
race selection, is that the quality of the men’s pro field most certainly
impacts the Age Group field. So if you are mulling over Arizona as your race
choice and you read that Normann Stadler, Faris Al-Sultan, Chris
McCormack have just signed up for the race, then you should be aware that
their presence will attract a lot of good Age Groupers. Also note that the
presence of Johathon
“JonnyO” Caron is likely to attract the vast
majority the Slowtwitch community and a higher
participation of womens. Despite spending half
their lives glued to the forum, praising Cervelo
and refining their sarcasm, STers nevertheless seem
to find the time to maintain a higher standard of IM performance than the
general population. If the kona slot is your goal
then you are best selecting either of these races on the year that the pros
(of your gender) are not attending. Registering for the race may be a problem
as they tend to sell out within minutes.
|
Average HQC
|
Category
|
|
Event
|
M18
|
M25
|
M30
|
M35
|
M40
|
M45
|
Average
|
|
Arizona
|
24.1%
|
17.3%
|
16.7%
|
17.7%
|
20.8%
|
25.3%
|
20.3%
|
|
Lake Placid
|
20.4%
|
17.0%
|
16.3%
|
16.9%
|
19.5%
|
23.9%
|
19.0%
|
|
Coeur D'alene
|
18.8%
|
15.1%
|
16.8%
|
18.7%
|
21.5%
|
22.7%
|
18.9%
|
|
Louisville
|
14.7%
|
12.0%
|
13.2%
|
18.9%
|
22.3%
|
32.2%
|
18.9%
|
|
New Zealand
|
17.6%
|
16.3%
|
15.6%
|
17.6%
|
18.9%
|
24.0%
|
18.3%
|
|
Malaysia
|
18.8%
|
11.4%
|
15.2%
|
17.3%
|
20.9%
|
24.7%
|
18.1%
|
|
Canada
|
16.5%
|
15.7%
|
14.8%
|
16.9%
|
19.7%
|
24.8%
|
18.0%
|
|
France
|
19.7%
|
12.0%
|
11.9%
|
14.7%
|
19.9%
|
28.6%
|
17.8%
|
|
South Africa
|
17.8%
|
16.4%
|
14.6%
|
15.9%
|
21.1%
|
19.3%
|
17.5%
|
|
Korea
|
9.1%
|
14.0%
|
12.7%
|
19.6%
|
20.5%
|
25.8%
|
16.9%
|
|
Wisconsin
|
16.3%
|
15.5%
|
14.5%
|
15.9%
|
18.2%
|
20.5%
|
16.8%
|
|
Germany
|
13.2%
|
11.7%
|
14.8%
|
16.5%
|
17.9%
|
22.7%
|
16.1%
|
|
Brazil
|
13.2%
|
12.8%
|
16.9%
|
15.9%
|
16.7%
|
20.0%
|
15.9%
|
|
Lanzarote
|
7.6%
|
11.0%
|
15.1%
|
18.4%
|
19.8%
|
23.3%
|
15.9%
|
|
Japan
|
15.4%
|
10.5%
|
13.5%
|
15.5%
|
16.7%
|
22.4%
|
15.7%
|
|
Australia
|
10.6%
|
11.2%
|
11.2%
|
15.3%
|
18.9%
|
20.5%
|
14.6%
|
|
Switzerland
|
11.4%
|
11.3%
|
12.0%
|
15.2%
|
17.6%
|
19.7%
|
14.5%
|
|
United Kingdom
|
11.1%
|
10.3%
|
12.9%
|
13.9%
|
17.6%
|
20.9%
|
14.5%
|
|
Florida
|
14.1%
|
11.2%
|
11.5%
|
13.1%
|
14.2%
|
17.9%
|
| 
